Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
